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Introduction
IT professionals are routinely asked to develop effort, cost, and duration estimates for projects that may last only a few days or for projects that can span years. Ironically, few IT professionals have had any formal education in the art and science of estimating. Development of realistic and justifiable estimates is a crucial point in any project lifecycle, because this is where the team sets expectations of scope, cost, time, and quality. Unfortunately, far too many projects are grossly underestimated, resulting in inevitable cost and schedule overruns, and loss of credibility for the project team. A good estimate is defensible and establishes a level of professional confidence between the sponsor and the team, conveying to the sponsor the feeling the estimates are fair (challenging but achievable). A well-founded estimate further provides the project team with a sound foundation for negotiations of estimated cost, resources, and time.
Objectives
The goals of this session are to teach the participants proven techniques, practical algorithms, and innovative approaches necessary to create realistic and defensible estimates for projects of varying sizes and complexities. Participants will learn and practice estimating techniques from effort distribution and parametric models, to detailed task-based estimates. They will also learn the relative benefits, and correct application, of various estimating techniques.
Upon successful completion of this seminar participants will be able to:
Identify the reasons for poor estimates
Differentiate between phase-based, deliverables-based and task-based estimates
Illustrate the hazard associated with converting a size estimate into a project schedule
Determine the impact of project complexity on their estimates
Compute the impact of team skills, work interruptions, and productivity environment
on estimates
Create size estimates using parametric and deliverable-based models
Develop detailed task-based effort, cost, and duration estimates
Compute and account for the impacts of contingency plans on estimates
Perform cost and critical path compression
Present, and defend, their project estimates
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Seminar Audience
Project managers, team members, and selected end-user/customer team members.
Case Study
Groups of participants form into teams and practice the tools and techniques being taught in the seminar on their real-life projects.
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PMBOK® Guide Areas Covered:
Scope management
Time Management
Cost Management
Human Resource Management
Risk Management
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Introduction
The Project Process Architecture
(PPA™)
Overview
Estimating Objectives
Guess, WAG, and SWAG
Estimate-To-Please (Political Estimates)
Obstacles to Realistic Estimating
Results of Poor Estimating
Estimating Fundamentals
Common Approaches
Estimating Types
 Size Estimates
Detailed Estimates
Incremental
Estimating
Seven Estimating Fundamentals
Accuracy of Estimates
Key Elements – Pre-Work
Pre-Launch
Launch
Validate Estimating Assumptions
Level of Confidence
Constraints and Obstacles
Phase Based Size Estimating
Objectives
Phase Based Model
Estimating Process
Model Calibration
Effort Estimate
Work Month Estimate
Resource Estimate
Duration Estimate
Project Management Effort
Cost Estimate
Model Fit
Summary
Deliverables Based Size Estimating
Objectives
WBS
Pre-Work
WBS Sample List
Deliverable Definition
Deliverable Estimate
Contingencies
Deliverables Based Gantt
Model Fit
Summary
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Task Based Estimating
Objectives
Delphi Technique
Definition
Process
PERT Technique
WBS Review
PERT Method
Network Diagram
Task Estimates
Baseline Effort Estimate
Resource Profile
Skill Factor
Work Interruption Factor
Multi-Project Factor
Productivity Influencing Factor
Effort Variance Factor
Effort Estimate
Duration Estimate
Critical Path
CPM Computation
Critical vs. Essential Tasks
Resource Constraints
Adjusted Critical Path
Managing Risk
Estimating Readiness Checklist
Fit
Summary
Related Topics
Profiling the Unknown Team
Projects with Tight Deadlines
Project Reserve
Expiration Date
Estimate Review Points
Steps to Reduce Estimates
Incremental Estimating
Typical Shortcomings of
Estimating
Practices
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